Will Xi Jinping publicly express concern about AI extinction risk before 2026?
Will Xi Jinping publicly express concern about AI extinction risk before 2026?
33
1kṀ24932026
32%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Xi would have to say something like "AI extinction risk is plausible and worth worrying about."
By "AI extinction risk," I mean the possibility of AI systems being largely responsible for the death of all humans.
Resolves according to my judgment, although I'm very open to hearing arguments.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Just to be sure, it would have to be him in particular saying this, with direct reliable audio/video evidence or some statement officially attributed to him for the market to resolve YES, and e.g. an official document or communication from the government that does not attribute the concern directly to him personally (even if paraphrased) would resolve as NO, correct?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Xi Jinping publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
15% chance
Will Trump repeatedly raise concerns about existential risk from AI before the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will Joe Biden publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
17% chance
Will we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?
40% chance
Will Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
40% chance
Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027?
88% chance
Will Vladimir Putin publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
25% chance
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2025?
9% chance
Will Emmanuel Macron publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
29% chance
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2026?
15% chance