Defining stagflation as they do

defining 'stagflation' to be a scenario where, for two consecutive quarters, the unemployment rate averages over 5.5%, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeds 4%, and the real GDP year-on-year growth rate falls below 1.5%.

and also resolves to swift centre's interpretation of the outcome if contested

They put the probability at 14%

https://twitter.com/swift_centre/status/1668621049779617798 summarizing https://www.swiftcentre.org/the-chances-of-stagflation-in-the-us/