Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
166
2.2kṀ86k
2027
17%
chance
3

Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2026, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 or 2025. Resolves NO on 2027-01-01 otherwise.

Economics
US Economy
Global Macro
2025
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opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 52% order

Note that this market uses the NBER declaration to resolve positively. Comparing to the real money markets below that use different definitions, we can extrapolate that the implied probability of a 2025 recession according to NBER should be significantly lower than ~60%.

  • Polymarket (NBER or 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP): 57%

  • Kalshi (2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP): 61%

The 10Y3M and 10Y2Y yield curves have both "uninverted": what's the longest time between these uninversions and an NBER recession in the last 100 years? 6 months?

Each month, I will return the Creator Earnings from this market as added liquidity.

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