Current approval rating as of Nov. 19 (according to the Nate Silver website) is 41.5%. I will resolve in a binary fashion (a .1% change will resolve the same as a 10% change). If the rating is exactly 41.5%, I will resolve N/A. I will resolve based on the January 31 percentage.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
Context: With the Epstein Files Transparency Act being passed today, Trump has 10 days to sign (or veto) the act, meaning that his decision will be made by Dec. 1. If it is passed, the DoJ then has 30 days to release the files, to the extent possible.
Assuming that the document release goes forward, then public opinion about the files will likely be somewhat settled by the end of January. It is obviously a tenuous assumption that 1) the Epstein files will be fully released in this time period, and 2) there will be no more large news stories before the end of January, but that's part of the risk you'll have to take :)
I will not vote in this market. If there are any questions, please put them in the comments!
Update 2026-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will wait until the day after the market close date (February 1st) to resolve the market, rather than resolving on January 31st itself, to ensure the final approval rating percentage for January 31st is confirmed.
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Well, I just closed the market a few hours early thanks to Draaglom's comment. Hopefully everyone had fun in this market!
I will freely admit that the state of the news is not where I expected it to be when I made this market (Large number of Epstein files released yesterday, and a large number of other news stories unrelated to the files since the start of the market). I'm glad I covered my bases by including the "tenuous assumption" paragraph :)
@draaglom Thanks for pointing that out! I didn't realize that that would come out today, I assumed it would come out tomorrow
I'm not sure if the percentage changes throughout the course of the day, so I'll wait to resolve this until tomorrow. But, assuming that the 41.4% approval is the final number for Jan 31, I expect to resolve this as NO