Will Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?
6
Ṁ100Ṁ100Nov 3
20%
chance
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Resolution Criteria
Market resolves YES if Trump's approval rating on November 3rd, 2026 is higher on the Silver Bulletin than it was in his first term (using FiveThirtyEight, who, through the Wayback machine, puts his approval at 42.0%). If the Silver Bulletin is not available, then I'll use RealClearPolitics for both 2018 and 2026 (43.5% in 2018).
Market resolves NO if equal or lower.
Background
How popular is Donald Trump? - Silver Bulletin
Wayback Machine - FiveThirtyEight
Trump's Approval Rating - RCP
President Trump Job Approval (1st Term) - RCP
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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