US Recession in 2025?
72
Ṁ1kṀ32kMay 30
1%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will there be two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth after revisions in 2025?
This includes spillover from the last quarter of 2024, so the ones that count would be:
2024 Q4 negative Q1 negative
Q1 negative Q2 negative
Q2 negative Q3 negative
Q3 negative Q4 negative
Resolving based on FRED US Real GDP series, after revisions. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1#0
I will wait until the 3rd estimate for Q4 2025 is released, which should be sometime around the end of March 2026, plus some delay for FRED to reflect the updated figure.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
bought Ṁ40 NO
To help stat arbitrageurs make this market more efficient:
https://manifold.markets/turtlepurple/will-there-be-a-us-recession-by-eoy
People are also trading
Related questions
US financial and economic situation at end of 2025
US recession in 2026?
22% chance
US officially enter a recession in 2024? (NBER)
1% chance
WIll the United States Economy enter a recession by 2030?
67% chance
Will Australia enter a recession before 2025?
1% chance
WIll the United States Economy avoid a recession by 2029?
45% chance
In what year will the next US recession begin?
Will there be a worldwide recession before 2029?
43% chance