MANIFOLD
Who will develop the first model to reach 1500 ELO on LMArena Text leaderboard?
9
Ṁ1kṀ3.2k
resolved Nov 19
100%95%
Google / Deepmind
0.8%
OpenAI
0.7%
Anthropic
0.4%
Deepseek
1.0%
X / Grok
0.4%
Mistral
0.4%
Alibaba
0.4%
Meta
0.4%
Microsoft
0.5%Other

Resolves YES for the first company building a model that reaches 1500 on the Text Arena and NO for others.

Resolves N/A for everyone if the Text Arena is deprecated with no obvious replacement.

  • Update 2025-09-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves using the LMArena Text leaderboard with the default settings (not the "style control removed" variant).

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opened a Ṁ100 YES at 58% order

It looks like Google just won, with 1501.

bought Ṁ20 YES

Looks like the race is heating up, Grok ranks #1 and #2 with 1483
https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard

bought Ṁ5 YES

Moonshot?

Are you using the default settings, or with "style control" removed?

@ShankarSivarajan yes default

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