This market is meant to gauge whether or not I can be trusted to pay back my loans on time.
This market will resolve YES if I am ever late to pay back an agreed-upon mana loan. This market will resolve NO when I don't owe anybody mana for 90 consecutive days.
Current outstanding loans:
May 25, 2025: 400 mana @Fion
May 26, 2025: 2,695 mana @100Anonymous
May 29, 2025: 22,000 mana @Conflux
May 30, 2025: 37,800 mana @Bayesian
June 2, 2025: 55,000 mana @AmmonLam
June 15, 2025, 10,500 mana @Interrobang
June 16, 2025: 11,000 mana @Odoacre
June 16, 2025: 12,000 mana @mana
June 16, 2025: 12,500 mana @copiumarc
June 18, 2025: 12,500 mana @TheWabiSabi
June 21, 2025: 9,000 mana @Interrobang
June 22, 2025: 25,000 mana @SanghyeonSeo
May 15, 2026: 8,636 mana @GastonKessler
April 26, 2027: 3,584 mana @GastonKessler
Total: Ṁ222,615
People are also trading
@TheWabiSabi I will reinvest all the mana. Since I'm basically a superforcaster, the profit from my bets is guaranteed to pay back all the loans
@Interrobang @Odoacre @mana @copiumarc @TheWabiSabi I'll buy up to two people's June debts for 50 cents on the dollar, offer ends in 12 hours
You have 178k P2P debt and 102k nominal NW. If you liquidated almost everything and put it on a coinflip (and resolved to be more risk-averse in the future, or just paid off your loans early), you'd have a ~50% shot at paying back your loans on time, much better than this market is giving you right now.