Will Citadel start a prediction market making desk by the midterms? | Manifold

Will Citadel start a prediction market making desk by the midterms?

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bought Ṁ40 YES

https://www.tekedia.com/citadel-explores-expansion-in-prediction-markets/?srsltid=AfmBOooTUUGLjcAJMmEtDuBr9UmQLkluyQBhJ2nZpJyz64kji6xHxCFl

Billionaires like Charles Schwab and Citadel Securities CEO Peng Zhao invested in Kalshi a CFTC-regulated platform in June 2025, valuing it at $2 billion.

Is Interactive Brokers a good comparison here, i.e. are they actually a market maker?

They allow trading on ForecastEx (which I believe does not take positions itself and only matches "yes" and "no" buyers on an order book) and CME event contracts (which I'm also not sure Interactive Brokers would be a counterparty for, as opposed to a broker of).

@lxgr You are absolutely right. I have removed the reference to IB in the title. I have something different in mind with this question. I am thinking about the expansion of the existing market making business into prediction markets.

idk man but I intend to just sit here on the sidelines with my play mana

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