Schwab customers must be able to trade on the election directly through their main brokerage platform (including ThinkOrSwim and other platforms directly owned/operated by Schwab).

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 56% chance (22 traders, as of Mar 20, 2026).

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Will Citadel start a prediction market making desk by the midterms?

+10% 1d46% chance

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

82% chance

Highest volume prediction market for 2028 US prez election?

When will the USA legalise prediction markets for elections?

Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

78% chance

Will Polymarket allow US persons to trade on the 2026 midterms?

84% chance

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

60% chance

Which party will win the 2028 presidential election? / Will prediction markets be legal in 2030?

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

47% chance