Will Russia invade any NATO member country before 31 December 2026?
• This question asks participants to predict whether there will be any military action by Russia that constitutes an invasion of a NATO member country’s sovereign territory before the end of 31 December 2026.
• For the purposes of this market, an “invasion” is defined as the unauthorized entry of Russian military forces into the sovereign territory of a NATO member country that is publicly acknowledged by NATO as an act of aggression.
• Verification of an invasion can be based on official statements from NATO, the government of the member country involved, or the Russian government.
• Incidents that are ambiguous or not officially recognized as an invasion by NATO or the member country’s government will not count towards the resolution of this market.
• This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such invasion occurs before the specified date, and “No” otherwise.
1,000For anyone curious why this is suddenly going up:
I bought a little NO on the basis that three months from now seems pretty early for a full invasion of Poland/etc, not because I think it's that unlikely eventually. Could the creator clarify what
defined as the unauthorized entry of Russian military forces into the sovereign territory of a NATO member country that is publicly acknowledged by NATO as an act of aggression.
Level of forces is required for this? e.g. Would a border skirmish or raid to test response qualify, or does it need to be believed by NATO to basically constitute an Article 5 activation?