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MANIFOLD
Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description]
76
Ṁ1kṀ13k
2027
16%
chance

Models have been doing near-magic feats recently.
Will an AI do Magic before the end of next year? (that we know of)


The following things are considered magic:

  • Standard temperature and pressure superconductor developed

  • Factoring RSA-2048

  • All of @jim's predictions come true

  • SPY goes above 1500

  • Mind uploading

  • Trigger a false vacuum decay

  • Intelligence augmentation: Something that can increase (almost) any human IQ by >15 points

  • Time travel, telepathy, teleportation, wormholes used

  • Macroscopic stable self-replicating life not based on existing biological life that can do a backflip

  • ECI or BECI >= 220

  • Reverse Aging (significant, e.g. 50 -> 25)

  • Turn 1kg of lead into gold

  • World peace

  • China or Russia is overthrown

  • Alignment is solved

  • Wheat production is 100x cheaper

  • Find aliens (not related to us)

  • Cure depression (works on 95%+ of depressed people)

  • Portable fusion reactors

  • Method is found to resolve almost any dispute between humans with both coming out happy

  • Anything that is not listed above, but that clearly exceeds the Magicalness bar set by the events above. I can also add new magical things to the list.

FAQ:

Q: How will you know if X is magical?
A: I'll know it when I see it.

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there’s a saying about technological advancement (and life in general) that is quite relevant:

“things will happen that you won’t expect, yet seem obvious in retrospect”

in other words, AI will do what we now consider as magic soon, but that will feel like a natural development once it has happened. exceptions exist, of course.

@bobalobascrob fyi i made that quote up but hindsight bias is real… will lower what the future us consider as “magic”

opened a Ṁ25,000 YES at 25% order

jim order up

  • Method is found to resolve any dispute between humans with both coming out happy

Is it sufficient to just give both humans large quantities of drugs that make them happier?

@PeterMillerc030 probably not

@calour e.g. if the drug makes them much more rational such that they agree, that might count, but just giving them both fentanyl wouldn't

sold Ṁ299 NO

@traders eci criteria changed to 220

@calour uh you cant just change the rules like that. i bet off that line item

@prismatic + you sold your entire position? this is pretty blatant

@prismatic I sold my NO position

@prismatic agree - isn’t right to change the rules after the fact.

@calour if you want this to stand, i'd like a refund on my position

@prismatic same

bought Ṁ100 NO

i support the change, it matches the spirit better

@Bayesian while I agree with this, it still ain’t right to change the rules after predictions have been made based on another premise.

@Runestone i think it’s more right than not changing the rule, but i get the frustration

bought Ṁ25 YES

Technically speaking transmuting 1 kg of lead into gold is possible. With enough funding. (New campaign platform alert)

@Qoiuoiuoiu same with RSA

@calour although I think having the amount of capital to do these tasks is currently infeasible, even if you were say the US government

ECI and LK99 seem most likely by far compared to the others

What if an AI manages to play Magic: The Gathering competently? Surely that's an "AI doing Magic".

@Quroe lol i thought the same thing

@Quroe an astra/fable deck got me to mythic this month but I'm playing it, not the model

bought Ṁ50 NO

What are @Jim ‘s predictions?

find a satisfying way that unites quantum mechanics and general relativity

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