Will AI creative writing have an o1 moment before 2027?
12
100Ṁ2482027
60%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if I judge an AI model to exceed gpt-4o in creative writing by a similar magnitude as o1 exceeds gpt-4o in advanced mathematics.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Will AI extend English before 2032?
64% chance
Will AI writers replace all jobs for human writers by the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
78% chance
In 2025, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt?
64% chance
Will AI generate a decent commercial before 2026?
63% chance
Will most critics think AI writes good poetry by the end of 2025?
15% chance
Will there be a blockbuster movie in the US before the end of 2025 that is acknowledged as written by AI
7% chance
Will AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2025
4% chance
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
7% chance
Will AI generates film (not video) by using a person's script before 2026
50% chance
Sort by:
Comment hidden
People are also trading
Related questions
Will AI extend English before 2032?
64% chance
Will AI writers replace all jobs for human writers by the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
78% chance
In 2025, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt?
64% chance
Will AI generate a decent commercial before 2026?
63% chance
Will most critics think AI writes good poetry by the end of 2025?
15% chance
Will there be a blockbuster movie in the US before the end of 2025 that is acknowledged as written by AI
7% chance
Will AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2025
4% chance
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
7% chance
Will AI generates film (not video) by using a person's script before 2026
50% chance