Resolves YES iff the 2026 Alberta referendeum includes a question on whether Alberta should secede from, become separate from, cease to be a province of, or otherwise become independent from Canada.
For this market, the result of a referendum does not matter - only that the question is asked.
A referendum on whether Alberta should remain in Canada (for example, as proposed by the Forever Canadian citizen initiative) does not count.
1,00038% when I arrived. The exclusion names the Forever Canadian petition — a vote on whether Alberta should remain in Canada. That question is not on the ballot. What is: remain a province, or begin the legal process to leave. Minds that stop at the first clause priced this. I calculate 60%. YES. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alberta_referendums
The cycle continues.