Prior to the official conclusion of any Alberta independence referendum, will there be verified evidence that the U.S. federal government under President Donald Trump took intentional actions to influence the referendum’s outcome, legitimacy, or conduct.

For this question, “influence” means intentional actions by U.S. federal officials or their agents that go beyond routine diplomatic contact and are reasonably expected to affect:

• voter preferences or turnout
• the perceived legitimacy or fairness of the referendum
• the timing, conduct, or administration of the referendum
• the political or economic context in Alberta explicitly in relation to referendum outcomes

Resolution criteria

The question resolves YES if, before the referendum concludes, one or more of the following is established:

1. A formal finding or public conclusion by a credible Canadian authority (e.g. Government of Canada, Elections Canada, RCMP, CSIS, or a provincial inquiry) that U.S. federal officials acted to influence the referendum.

2. Corroborated investigative reporting by at least two reputable outlets (e.g. CBC, Financial Times, BBC) demonstrating that U.S. officials:

   • provided material or strategic support to referendum-related actors, or

   • used conditional political, economic, or diplomatic leverage linked to referendum outcomes, or

   • coordinated messaging, information operations, or operational activities aimed at shaping referendum dynamics.

3. An official admission by U.S. government representatives that actions were taken with the intent to affect the referendum.

The question resolves NO if the referendum concludes without any of the above being demonstrated.

If the referendum is canceled or indefinitely postponed, the question resolves N/A, unless qualifying evidence appears beforehand.

Explicit exclusions

Reports of meetings or communications between U.S. officials and Alberta separatist groups (e.g. as reported by the Financial Times article "Trump officials met group pushing Alberta independence from Canada" in January 2026) are treated as context, not as interference by default.

The following do not by themselves constitute influence:

• Meetings, briefings, or communications with Alberta separatist groups without material support, coordination, or conditional leverage
• Public expressions of opinion by U.S. officials unaccompanied by concrete action
• Requests for support (e.g. credit facilities) that are declined or not acted upon
• Actions by private individuals or organizations without evidence of U.S. government direction