This market resolves YES if the number of federal employees decreases by more than 500,000 relative to the January 2025 count, as measured by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series CES9091000001 before January 2026.

As of February 2025, there were approximately 3,007,000 federal employees. A reduction of 500,000 would represent about 16.6% of the total federal workforce.

Resolution will be based on the official FRED data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001

This market aligns with the Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfedemployees/federal-government-employee-count