According to Wikipedia article categorization. If there is no stated motive, but a strong consensus, I'll still resolve yes. Update 2026-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will rely on Wikipedia categorization to determine if an event qualifies as terrorism. The creator is checking whether Wikipedia has categorized the incident as terrorism before considering resolution.

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 48% chance (23 traders, as of Jun 17, 2026).

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2027?

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Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2027?

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According to Wikipedia article categorization. If there is no stated motive, but a strong consensus, I'll still resolve yes.

Update 2026-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will rely on Wikipedia categorization to determine if an event qualifies as terrorism. The creator is checking whether Wikipedia has categorized the incident as terrorism before considering resolution.

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Does the terrorism have to cause significant harm/damage for it to be "committed"? Arguably any attempt is sufficient according to the wiki definition, as an attempt is enough to induce fear.

If so, the recent molotov cocktail throwing and subsequent shooting of Sam Altman's house should be sufficient to resolve YES. The word "terrorism" hasn't appeared in the media yet to my knowledge, but it fits the technical definition. @benjaminIkuta

Edit: One more thought. The important crux here may be whether the individuals acted alone, or to some extent, in cohesion. We don't count school shooters with manifestos as terrorists for this reason. But in this case there is a coherent shared ideology. And now the second attack involved 2 individuals.