A Russian drone struck an Estonian power plant today: https://news.err.ee/1609976919/drone-entering-estonian-airspace-from-russia-hits-auvere-power-station-chimney

Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if a drone entering Estonian territory from Russian airspace strikes any target in Estonia between March 25, 2026 and June 25, 2026. Resolution will be based on official statements from Estonia's Internal Security Service (ISS/KAPO) or other Estonian government authorities confirming the incident. The strike must result in physical impact on Estonian territory; near-misses or airspace violations alone do not count. Incidents with no injuries or infrastructure damage still count as strikes.

Background

A drone entered Estonian territory from Russian airspace and hit a chimney at the Auvere power station in Ida-Viru County on March 25, 2026. Estonian officials indicated that the object that struck Auvere was linked to the wider consequences of Russia's full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine, rather than to any deliberate attempt to target Estonia. According to Estonia's Internal Security Service director, "This is one of the effects of Russia's full-scale war of aggression. It is reasonable to assume that we will see more incidents of this kind."

Considerations

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, NATO members Croatia, Estonia, Poland, and Romania, as well as non-allied country Moldova, have reported numerous airspace violations by Russia. The March 25 incident appears to be a stray drone from Ukraine's operations against Russian targets rather than a deliberate Russian attack on Estonia, but the distinction may be difficult to establish in future incidents. Traders should note that determining intent and attribution could affect resolution in ambiguous cases.

This description was generated by AI.