Will the next LLM released by OpenAI be worse than GPT-4 at MMLU?
23
Ṁ1kṀ1.2kJan 1
16%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The next LLM = the next family of LLM in cases of doubt - an updated version of a previous model doesn't count as a new model for this market
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Afaik OpenAI has not made a model worse than their previous model before. (gpt-3.5-turbo & text-davinci-003 perform about the same overall so i'm not counting that) and I'm pretty sure ada/babbage/curie/davinci were all released at the same time, and the best of those, davinci, was better than early gpt-3, so that wouldn't count either