When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?
Basic
7
Ṁ649
2026
0.4%
Q3 2023
0.7%
Q4 2023
2%
Q1-Q2 2024
88%
Q3-Q4 2024
5%
2025
2%
2026
1.6%
Other

"Better" is a moving target since LLMs tend to be compared on large suites of tasks and datasets, and over time the consensus of effective benchmarks changes.

But the question will resolve positively if it shows matching or better performance on at least 3 benchmarks that are reasonably standard at the time and somewhat general purpose (not specialized on maths, coding or some other narrow class of reasoning).

Open-source means that both the code and the weights are openly available, regardless of the license.

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@JonEzeiza bro, if u r referring to GPT-4-0314, we already have several open source models better than it

which GPT-4 variant are you inferring to?

Q3 should resolve to no by now, right?

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