Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before year X?
24
2.2kṀ5759
2040
4%
X = 2026
5%
X = 2027
7%
X = 2028
9%
X = 2029
10%
X = 2030
12%
X = 2031
12%
X = 2032
12%
X = 2033
12%
X = 2034

Science
superconductivity
LK-99
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2026?
4% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2027?
6% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2029?
10% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2028?
8% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2030?
13% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2031?
17% chance
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2040?
56% chance
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?
10% chance
In what year will we discover the first superconducting material at roughly room temperature, atmospheric pressure?
2042
Will room-temperature and -pressure superconductivity be achieved before 2030?
18% chance
Sort by:

When/how will any of these markets resolve NO?

@FlorisvanDoorn @mods "Deleted account"

What happens if X>2034? My first estimate is around 2050.

@Willi If you're interested in years beyond the scope of this market, i'd recommend setting a new prediction market

Do all questions only resolve in/after 2034? The question says "before year X". Does that mean "X = 2024" resolves yes if it later turns out RTAP superconductor was already found in 2023 or earlier?

@GrassomannGrassomann yes, if lk99 is real, all resolve yes

reposted

Multi-year time line. Let's settle it.

People are also trading

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2026?
4% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2027?
6% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2029?
10% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2028?
8% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2030?
13% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2031?
17% chance
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2040?
56% chance
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?
10% chance
In what year will we discover the first superconducting material at roughly room temperature, atmospheric pressure?
2042
Will room-temperature and -pressure superconductivity be achieved before 2030?
18% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy