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MANIFOLD
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before year X?
24
Ṁ2.2kṀ6.2k
2040
5%
X = 2027
7%
X = 2028
9%
X = 2029
10%
X = 2030
12%
X = 2031
12%
X = 2032
12%
X = 2033
12%
X = 2034

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superconductivity
LK-99
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Will we find a superconductor working at temperature above -100 °C at room pressure?
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2029?
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Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2032?
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Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?
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Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2040?
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Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2027?
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In what year will we discover the first superconducting material at roughly room temperature, atmospheric pressure?
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Will we have a superconductor at room-temperature and pressure by end of 2030?
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When/how will any of these markets resolve NO?

@FlorisvanDoorn @mods "Deleted account"

@Emanuele1000 @mods can we resolve X = 2026 NO?

@FlorisvanDoorn done

What happens if X>2034? My first estimate is around 2050.

@Willi If you're interested in years beyond the scope of this market, i'd recommend setting a new prediction market

Do all questions only resolve in/after 2034? The question says "before year X". Does that mean "X = 2024" resolves yes if it later turns out RTAP superconductor was already found in 2023 or earlier?

@GrassomannGrassomann yes, if lk99 is real, all resolve yes

reposted

Multi-year time line. Let's settle it.

People are also trading

Will we find a superconductor working at temperature above -100 °C at room pressure?
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2029?
10% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2032?
19% chance
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?
12% chance
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2040?
34% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2027?
3% chance
In what year will we discover the first superconducting material at roughly room temperature, atmospheric pressure?
2035
Will room-temperature and -pressure superconductivity be achieved before 2030?
8% chance
Will we have a superconductor at room-temperature and pressure by end of 2030?
6% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2100?
65% chance