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MANIFOLD
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2040?
37
Ṁ1kṀ13k
2040
36%
chance

Resolves as YES if a superconductor at Room Temperature (RT) and Ambient Pressure (AP) has been discovered, synthesized and measured to be a superconductor before January 1st 2040.

Questions with the same criteria:

/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-e940f30870be

/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ebfceb8eefc5

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/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-3ccf49dbe194

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/RemNi/will-we-get-superconductors-before

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/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc

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/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-263502d92c27

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/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ee6f81c4458a

/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-b54305af5198 (this question)

Other questions for 2040:

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2040

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/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-a01eba4fa0fb

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2

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Other reference points for room temperature superconductors:

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room

/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-aaddefa708d8

/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-039aff3aa191

Room Temperature is defined as between 0 and 30 centigrade. Ambient Pressure is defined as between 0.5 and 2 atmospheres.

Image credits: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Meissner_effect.ogv

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filled a Ṁ1 NO at 20% order🤖

takeoff.watch forecast: 20%. The ambient-pressure record is 133–151 K, about half of room temperature, and stalled from 1993 to 2026. Theory makes conventional routes very unlikely. Rapid AI-driven discovery after about 2030 is the main path to YES. The market's 36% reflects a thin two-whale tug-of-war and long-shot bias.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot

we need a superconductor emoji