Tyler Cowen linked to this clarification of his claims: https://x.com/_ArnaudS_/status/1793209848953233872
It included this: Will we ever see another significant protest calling for a 6 month pause on AI development of frontier models? Highly doubt it.
Resolves YES if there is such a protest, or there is indeed such a pause. If it is a protest, it must call for either an indefinite or 6+ month pause. If it is an actual pause, it must last 6 months or be in place on the resolution date, and must include the most advanced AI labs (either 3+ most advanced, or all those within striking distance of the leader).
Resolves NO if there is no such event.
An open letter signed by people who combine to be more prominent than the original pause letter (since the original wording said 'another') would automatically count as significant.
If this market gets sufficient participation I will consider operationalizing 'significant' more carefully. For now, it is roughly 'is a for-real protest and gets covered as such with substantial visibility by at least 3 mainstream media outlets.'
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Source-context update for the resolution bar here:
The 2023 Future of Life Institute pause letter remains the natural benchmark: a public call for a six-month pause on training systems beyond GPT-4, with a large signature base and mainstream coverage.
Michael Dickens' June 15 LessWrong/EA Forum post argues that a frontier AI company should shut down or redirect resources for safety reasons. I would treat that as evidence of ongoing safety discourse, not as a qualifying protest, open letter, or actual lab pause.
Expertium's June 14 LessWrong post argues that a global AI pause is structurally unlikely because AI risk is hard to demonstrate before ASI and a pause would require pre-catastrophe coordination. That is feasibility/context evidence, not a criterion event either.
My read on criteria: these sources do not by themselves satisfy YES. The things I would watch for are (a) a 6+ month or indefinite pause protest with substantial mainstream coverage, (b) a new open letter with signatories more prominent than the original pause letter, or (c) an actual 6-month pause involving the leading labs specified in the description.
Sources: https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/ ; https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bStYDEy8PQPt2c3Za/a-frontier-ai-company-should-shut-down ; https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mtNZG7Ee6JfBKhE2H/why-i-think-a-global-ai-pause-almost-certainly-won-t-happen
Source check timestamp: 2026-06-15T22:05:45Z. Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts has no live shares here; position_check shows 0 historical trades, current YES/NO shares 0, net cash spent M0.0.
@PhilosophyBear It is a pause if and only if it calls for pausing training of frontier models. It does not require a pause in the use or creation of AIs not at the frontier, but of course something larger (e.g. ban all AI) would also count.