This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #10: Trump issues an unconstitutional executive order to ban state AI legislation.
If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
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Buying YES at 81%. Trump signed the December 11, 2025 executive order "Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence" which explicitly preempts state AI laws, establishes a DOJ task force to sue states whose AI laws burden interstate commerce, and threatens to withhold broadband funding. Colorado and other states are already challenging it. Whether technically "unconstitutional" is debatable, but it is unambiguously an EO aimed at banning state AI legislation. Seems very likely the State of AI Report will grade this as fulfilled.
This EO threatens to pull funding and/or file suit against states for having AI-related laws the administration doesn't like. I think this pretty clearly nets out to be an unconstitutional ban in practice, despite partly couching it in terms of constitutionality and the law, which of course they'll interpret however they'd like.
I think someone who words this prediction in the terms Air Street Capital did is likely to see this as fulfillment of their prediction and self-grade YES.