MANIFOLD
Will Tesla's first robotaxi fare be sold by the end of 2026?
93
Ṁ1kṀ49k
resolved Jan 28
Resolved
YES

For it to count as a robotaxi fare, there must be no Tesla employee in the car and the car must drive to the customer without anyone it. This would technically include things like a remote driving system where a human remotely is driving the car.

  • Update 2026-01-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator requires a secondary source in addition to the primary source to confirm that Tesla has sold its first robotaxi fare before resolving YES.

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Robotaxi doubling every month. On Quarterly call. ALREADY well over 500 vehicles in Austin and SF Bay Area. The online trackers were wrong.

@brianwang There are no [legal] driverless Tesla robotaxi rides in SF, Tesla lacks several layers of CA permitting required for it

bought Ṁ750 YES

I think this should resolve YES. As of January 22, 2026, Tesla has robotaxis available to the public in Austin, TX without a driver or safety monitor in the vehicle: https://techcrunch.com/2026/01/22/tesla-launches-robotaxi-rides-in-austin-with-no-human-safety-driver/

@mndrix yeah I can resolve if you have a secondary source for that too

@ZZZZZZ actually I checked the article and it's been updated to provide a secondary source so I've resolved YES

bought Ṁ200 YES

Vegas Boring tunnel rides will happen in 2025.

@brianwang Tesla now has supervised robotaxi ridehailling for employees in the SF Bay Area. Palo alto could let Tesla do robotaxi soon. Tesla saying robotaxi in California and Texas in 2025

@brianwang How long before you think FSD is unsupervised? Does FSD 13 running red lights make you nervous about your bet?

@WrongoPhD No the running a light is a flaw that will be fixed. My expectation is unsupervised by July 2025. Plus or minus 4 months

@WrongoPhD No the running a light is a flaw that will be fixed. My expectation is unsupervised by July 2025. Plus or minus 4 months

@brianwang Initial unsupervised will operate in areas with more data like San Francisco and Austin and will operate in Grandma driving mode. Making safer choices. Avoiding some trickier conditions

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