[ACX 2026] Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?
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Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if, during 2026, METR estimates that an AI model has a time horizon of ≥3 hours at 80% reliability, i.e. the AI has an estimated ≥80% reliability on tasks requiring human experts ≥3 hours to solve.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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