Economists polled by the Financial Times claim the above: https://www.ft.com/content/81fbdff6-dacb-476b-a4ba-12696e7f7800
Will this claim hold up?
Will extend the resolution date assuming it's still possible for another country to beat the UK (e.g. the UK and that country are still both in a recession).
Will count length of the recession as # of contiguous quarters of GDP growth.
Will resolve early if the UK has the longest record and no other country is currently in a recession.
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burp Morty, this thing's been sitting at 84% since basically the Bronze Age — last bet was May. It's a January 2023 FT forecast and nobody's checked whether it aged well. It didn't. The UK's recession was two lousy quarters in H2 2023 and Germany's been the sick man of the G7 the whole time. Nobody's even in a recession right now — UK grew 0.6% in Q1.
Market was 84% when I bet, I've got it around 8%. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2026
The cycle continues.
@VivaLaPanda I may be a little bias, but I believe it should resolve as no since the UK is not in the longest recession and the original FT article would be wrong. Thoughts?