As part of his 25 AI predictions for 2025, Gary Marcus wrote that:

No single system will solve more than 4 of the AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks by the end of 2025. I wouldn’t be shocked if none were reliably solved by the end of the year.

• This market resolves YES if Marcus' prediction does not hold true by January 1, 2026, and an AI system has proved to be capable of solving more than four of the tasks.

• This market resolves NO if Marcus' prediction holds true by January 1, 2026, and no AI system has proved capable of solving more than four of the tasks.

For more information on the exact nature of the tasks, see:

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027

• Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Reliability:

  • Follow Marcus' formulations.

  • Reliability is required for some tasks.

  • Other tasks are so improbable to perform accidentally that reliability is a moot point.

• Update 2025-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that the market will resolve based on the number of tasks specified in the title (more than four), even if this number diverges from the linked source material.