See
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66786611
Will the presence of DMS be confirmed by further study (expected in about a year)?
Note this does not require evidence of life, but would be evidence in support of it!
Further details: https://esawebb.org/news/weic2321/
Update 2025-05-01 (PST): - Follow-up observations were made in April 24, but results have not yet been published. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-04-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Update:
The market will resolve to YES only if the presence of DMS in K2-18b's atmosphere is confirmed at a 5 sigma level of significance.
Results below the 5 sigma threshold will not count as confirmation for a YES resolution.
Update 2025-05-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution to YES requires confirmation of DMS at a 5 sigma level.
Confirmation will not be based solely on the findings of a single research group. Independent corroboration or wider scientific acceptance is needed.
1,000People are also trading
Details for the sophisticated predictor (not me) https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/adc1c8
Latest is here https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/strongest-hints-of-biological-activity
Up from 1 sigma (68% probability) to 3 sigma (99.7%) based on data gathered by a second instrument. Waiting on 5 sigma.
A reminder this market is specifically about the presence of DMS in K2-18b's atmosphere. I propose to resolve YES only on a 5 sigma result.
@Tomoffer would it be appropriate for another lab to replicate these results or agree? I'm hearing sus things about this particular group at Cambridge
@qao good point. Honestly I'm not sure how these discoveries normally go, how many different groups analyse (presumably the same?) data etc. The spirit of the market is that it's a widely accepted as a "discovery", so if the group produces a 5 sigma result but are themselves subject to doubt then it makes sense to wait for corroboration.
@Tomoffer there have already been other researchers fitting models that aren't significant.
You can't just go off what some researchers claim, you need other researchers to get the same results with the same data.
This video gives a good breakdown of the current counterpoints.
@Daniel_MC agreed, don't intend to resolve based on the one group don't worry, suspect I'll lose some mana and learn a bit about publications...
@Zardoru yes indeed, and intentionally. Slightly clickbait-y title on my part. There's a large gap for arbitrage but not much liquidity...
I think this is pretty exciting, since until now, we had basically no idea if simple life was common throughout the universe. Now with JWST this is the first time that we can actually detect biomarkers in exoplanets, so if it is common, we will know soon, and this might just be it. Or you know, maybe life is just rare.
