For the purposes of this market, "military support" is defined broadly. Deploying US soldiers obviously counts, but so does providing weapons or other resources.
The spirit of the market is that anything along the lines of the deal under discussion would be a YES.
Update 2025-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Non-Military Personnel Not Counted:
Only arrangements that are directly related to supporting the war effort will be counted as military support.
Simply deploying US personnel or workers, without a connection to the war effort, does not meet the criteria for military support.
Update 2025-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Military Aid Connection Clarification:
A YES outcome requires that, following the signing of the deal, military aid is resumed in a manner that appears connected to the deal.
If the deal is signed without an accompanying resumption of military aid, the resolution will be postponed until the end of the year to allow for further developments.
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The creator has indicated that if new U.S. military aid to Ukraine is counted as part of the U.S. contribution to a joint fund established under the rare earths deal, this will satisfy the requirement that military aid is resumed in a manner connected to the deal.
If this condition is met, the market will resolve to YES.
Resolution will await confirmation that this mechanism (counting new aid as a contribution) is part of the implemented deal.
Update 2025-05-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The creator will prioritize finding a source that shows an explicit connection between provided U.S. military aid and the rare earths deal (e.g., demonstrating "the US provided X so Ukraine owes Y").
If no such explicit connection is confirmed by the resolution date, the creator will make a judgement call based on whether the military aid provided appears implicitly part of the deal.
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