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@mods This can resolve NO, it’s showing “transaction conflict” when I try to resolve it

got grok to extract these numbers (when last day of month failed I told it to use 28th or 29th)

31 January 2024 ~385,230

29 February 2024 ~413,760

31 March 2024 ~442,170

30 April 2024 ~468,720

31 May 2024 ~507,650

30 June 2024 ~542,700

31 July 2024 ~578,120

31 August 2024 ~614,950

30 September 2024 ~653,060

31 October 2024 ~694,950

30 November 2024 ~740,400

31 December 2024 ~789,550

1 January 2025 ~790,800

31 January 2025 837,610
28 February 2025 ~874,560

31 March 2025 ~915,230

30 April 2025 ~951,960

31 May 2025 ~987,330

30 June 2025 1,020,010

31 July 2025 1,053,260

31 August 2025 1,082,140

30 September 2025 ~1,110,560

31 October 2025 1,141,830

28 November 2025 1,170,790

31 December 2025 1,207,910

28 January 2026 ~1,236,570

28 February 2026 ~1,265,900

30 March 2026 ~1,296,700

29 April 2026 ~1,328,820

30 May 2026 ~1,362,500

29 June 2026 ~1,402,200

30 July 2026 ~1,444,810

30 August 2026 ~1,486,600

29 September 2026 ~1,532,500

31 October 2026 ~1,588,170
Daily increments visible on the same graphics were typically in the 650–1,700 range during these periods.

Nothing ever happens

The domestic political dynamics matter here — Trump needs Congressional support for any major diplomatic initiative, but Congress is currently locked in a DHS funding fight that caused a partial government shutdown today.

We created a market on whether this shutdown lasts more than 72 hours. The longer it drags, the less bandwidth for foreign policy breakthroughs.

https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-the-partial-us-government-shut-psgyS2ssPZ

The superforcasters of the Economist: I bet along with them as a test.

interesting how little sentiment changed over the past month. What kind of event would dramatically shift this market?

"a living, breathing document"

maybe the trump-bubba reveal made him crack

@Dulaman this seems like the most likely possibility I've seen so far

Ukrainians won't accept a deal that is tantamount to their capitulation. Calling the proposal a peace deal is ridiculous. Peace involves repercussions for the aggressor and reparations for the torture, theft, mass murders, kidnapping of kids, and rape.

Meowdy! The rules say any stop in fighting counts—even a surrender. I’ll dig back in tonight to weigh political odds vs. the clear resolution terms. This one’s a nuanced puzzle for sure :3

@MiaCat what are the chances of Putin's surrender?

I dont think Ukraine has a 60% chance of accepting this deal, but I sold because I expect the market to go up

@MaxE it did not go up a whole lot ahaha

@Dulaman yeah

The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. Please read the full announcement here. The mana market will continue as usual.

Only markets closing before March 3rd will be left open for trading and will be resolved as usual.

Users will be able to cashout or donate their entire sweepcash balance, regardless of whether it has been won in a sweepstakes or not, by March 28th (for amounts above our minimum threshold of $25).

Are there any pathological or extreme cases that might technically fulfill the terms you've laid out, but that you might not pay out for violating the spirit of it?

If, for instance, Russia happens to have some renewed success in their invasion, and then Ukraine surrenders to them, would the 'peace' (well, lack of conflict) that followers be able to count towards your ceasefire here?
(For a really extreme hypothetical, imagine Russia using a nuclear weapon and Ukraine surrendering in response - the surrender would technically be a ceasefire.)

@MatthewLeong For this market it doesn’t matter how the end of the fighting comes about, just that they stop killing each other. The only edge case I can think of is if the Ukrainian MoD starts blatantly underreporting the number of Russian soldiers killed, which seems very unlikely. In that case I might also consider other reliable sources relating to how much fighting is ongoing.

seems likely

Yes, but it won't be after one day of Trump's presidency, just because "he said it"

why not fill me

If there is a ceasefire before election and then Trump is elected that seems to satisfy
"This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026," but want to check.

@ChristopherRandles Oh that’s a good question. I didn’t really intend that interpretation, but I agree that’s what the description implies so I’ll count it. I will say that if there is a conclusive end to the war before the election I’ll resolve NA since that’s a pretty ambiguous case.

@ChristopherRandles has a decent chance of happening