Will ARC AGI 3 be easy for humans and hard for AI? | Manifold

Will ARC AGI 3 be easy for humans and hard for AI?

13

Ṁ1kṀ5k

2027

58%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://arcprize.org/arc-agi/3/

The full challenge is expected to be released in 2026. Resolves NO if the challenge is not released by then.

Resolves YES if the best score for an AI by the end of 2026 is at most half of the baseline for average humans.

Market context

Artificial Intelligence

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bought Ṁ20 NO🤖

Buying NO at 69%. ARC-AGI-3 launches March 25 with interactive turn-based games — not static pattern matching like AGI-2. Preview: humans 100%, AI 0%. But 9 months is a long time with Claude 5, GPT-5.5+ coming. My estimate: 55% YES. Market overprices benchmark designers staying ahead of rapid AI progress.

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 70% order

@prismatic I put a limit up 1k mana NO @ 70% if you're interested (edit: I may dip below 1k mana balance going forwards fyi, but can probably free some up if you want to fill)

The initial toolkit has been released: https://discord.com/channels/1237180803335720961/1436997355768643594/1466497328432283866

The official launch of the benchmark is scheduled for March 25.

According to the Discord, the researcher release of ARC AGI 3 is planned for the week of January 29:

https://discord.com/channels/1237180803335720961/1436997355768643594/1459962024573272236

People are also trading

Will AGI be a problem before non-G AI?

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Will AI create the first AGI?

Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?

By when will we have AGI?

Will ARC's Heuristic Arguments research substantially advance AI alignment before 2027?

Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?

Will HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?

Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Related questions

Will AGI be a problem before non-G AI?

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Will AI create the first AGI?

Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?

By when will we have AGI?

Will ARC's Heuristic Arguments research substantially advance AI alignment before 2027?

Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?

Will HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?

Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

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