Will we get a new biological weapon (like a virus, bacteria or fungi) before 2030 | Manifold

Will we get a new biological weapon (like a virus, bacteria or fungi) before 2030

32

1kṀ1318

2030

62%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Criteria for yes:

Used in an attack and killed at least 1 person
Compount was unknown before
A deliberate attack or accidental release/exposure counts
A modified version of a prior/natural vector counts.

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