Will an engineered pathogen cause a pandemic before 2030?
28
1kṀ18602029
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"pandemic" means the WHO recognizes the spread of the pathogen as a pandemic.
"engineered" means that the pathogen was altered/created by humans. This includes wild diseases that were modified (e.g. gain-of-function research).
the "pathogen" must be novel. For example, if COVID-19 were shown to have been engineered, this news would not affect this question.
The humans responsible for the pathogen can be any group; e.g. that includes leaks from labs, as well as the release of an engineered pathogen by a non-lab actor (e.g. terrorists, amateur geneticists).
The anthropogenic origins of the pathogen must be relatively certain; e.g. clear majority of mainstream press outlets, governments, and/or scientists agree the pandemic was engineered.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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