Will Manifold Markets stop being weird about Jimmy Carter before 2025?

Ṁ190Ṁ1.1k

resolved Dec 30

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"Will ai wipe out Jimmy Carter?"

Update 2024-29-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution Question: "Will Jimmy Carter rise from the dead three days after dying?"
- Resolution Date: December 29th
- Resolution Outcome: Jimmy Carter's death has caused a number of markets relating to him to be made, most of which will resolve in January 2025, meaning that during 2025, Manifold Markets will still be weird about Jimmy Carter. Thanks everyone!

Market context

Jimmy Carter

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What a buzzer beater, holy shit.

bought Ṁ20 YES

Given that he just died before January 2025, I'd imagine the answer is yes.

@PaintspotInfez his death could make things far worse tho, we will have to see.

@ThaNook Naaaahhh

@jothan @traders "Will Jimmy Carter rise from the dead three days after dying?" resolves on jan 6th, meaning that Manifold Markets will still be weird about Jimmy Carter in 2025, resolving NO. Thanks everyone for the fun!

@ThaNook if he rises from the dead this year then the question will resolve so Manifold will still have a chance to stop being weird before 2025.

@ThaNook The market wasn't "Will no question regarding Jimmy Carter exist on Manifold by 2025".

Pretty odd to mis-resolve this early, but you really seem to have some issues with Manifold or Jimmy Carter, so I guess it's not that surprising.

@Martlet if he rises from the dead this year i will show up at your house, give you ten thousand dollars in notes of five and then stab myself in the stomach with a bread knife. hope this helps.

@houstonEuler by resolving that market, the person who made it will be being weird about jimmy carter. hope this helps.

@ThaNook this was really all a case of the conjunction fallacy. Everyone should have known that the probability of manifold markets being normal about anything is zero. Adding Jimmy Carter doesn't change that at all. I fell for it too.

@JaySocrates thanks for being the most reasonable person on this forum, however, when this market was made, it seemed somewhat reasonable to believe that the whole jimmy carter thing would have died by now. it has always been a dumb joke and, if it wasnt for his death, this could have seriously been a yes, or at least a split.