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Will Manifold Markets still be popular at the end of 2026?
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Ṁ1kṀ8.4k
Jan 1
98%
chance
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Resolves YES if the 7d avg DAU at the end of 2026 is >1000. Otherwise resolves NO.

  • Update 2026-05-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 7d avg DAU metric used for resolution will be Active Users (not Active Traders) from the Manifold stats page.

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DAU includes bots & people not actually doing anything on the site. If you look at "active traders," it's clear the site is declining in popularity & actual human usage.

@NathanNguyen from the current version of the stats page would this be the Active Users or the Active Traders version?

https://manifold.markets/stats

@Eliza Active users

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