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MANIFOLD
What will the Conservatives' change in number of council seats in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections be?
2
Ṁ175Ṁ159
in 17 hours
-487 seats
expected
40%
Below - 600
27%
- 600 to - 451
16%
- 450 to - 301
10%
- 300 to - 151
5%
- 150 to - 1
3%
Above - 1

Resolves at (seats after - seats before). A negative resolution means that they lost seats, a positive resolution means that they gained seats.

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At the start of April there are about 20,000 seats, 1000 seats is 5% of that. Things are unusually turbulent this cycle, with a strong possibility of the government not being simply Labour or Conservative.