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MANIFOLD
How many seats will centre to centre-left parties have in the UK House of Commons on January 1st 2030?
3
Ṁ300Ṁ111
2030
325 seats
expected
7%
0 - 200
17%
200 - 249
17%
250 - 299
25%
300 - 349
11%
350 - 399
9%
400 - 449
7%
450 - 500
7%
500 - 650

Currently, Wikipedia lists the following parties as centre to centre left:

  • Labour

  • Liberal Democrats

  • Scottish National Party

  • Green Party

  • Plaid Cymru

  • SDLP

  • Alliance Party

  • [added 2026-05-04] Your Party

New parties that are considered to be centre to centre-left may be added to this list at my discretion; I will also evaluate independent candidates.

Sinn Féin is excluded from this list because of their abstentionism.

If this market was resolved at the time of creation, it would resolve between 504 and 507 (399 Labour + 72 Liberal Democrats + 9 Scottish National Party + 4 Green Party + 4 Plaid Cymru + 2 SDLP + 1 Alliance + 13-16 independents)

Market context
Elections
UK Politics
UK
Elections: World
Labour Party (UK)
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