Will Artificial Superintelligence be developed in the USA while Donald Trump is president?
Will Artificial Superintelligence be developed in the USA while Donald Trump is president?
35
1kṀ32312029
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) lead directly to the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)?
78% chance
If Trump is elected, will the shutdown of the US AI Safety Institute be announced in 2025?
38% chance
Conditional on the US introducing AI safety regulations, will China "win the AI race"?
12% chance
If Trump is elected in 2024, will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
14% chance
Will Trump's first year of presidency be positive for AI safety?
18% chance
If Trump wins, who will be the White House’s important AI policy officials in 2025?
If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?
24% chance
Will an AI become president of the United States before 2040?
7% chance
Will AI get regulated after the US president election until the end of 2025?
60% chance
Will Trump repeatedly raise concerns about existential risk from AI before the end of 2025?
10% chance