What will happen with the recent lawsuits by major record labels against AI music startups?
What will happen with the recent lawsuits by major record labels against AI music startups?
10
1.2kṀ12002026
44%
Udio or Suno will shutdown services temporarily
36%
Udio or Suno will shutdown services permanently
64%
A lawsuit reaches a settlement
46%
A lawsuit reaches trial
63%
A lawsuit reaches judgment
28%
A lawsuit reaches judgment in favor of the defendant
37%
A lawsuit reaches judgment in favor of the plaintiff
31%
A lawsuit is dismissed
73%
Training data is leaked or disclosed publicly by the court
31%
A lawsuit expands to include Microsoft as a defendant
69%
Microsoft drops its partnership with Suno
20%
A Billboard Top-100 Artist testifies at trial
Some labels, including Sony, Universal, and Warner, have started lawsuits against Udio and Suno.
Here's the RIAA press release. It looks like they're managing the lawsuits for the plaintiffs.
All outcomes that happen resolve YES. Any outcomes that don't happen by the end of these lawsuits will resolve NO. We'll have to keep an eye on when that might be.
Notes (may add more here as clarifications are needed):
"Billboard Top-100 Artist" or "Billboard 100 Artist" is any musician presently on Billboard's list of top 100 musicians, whatever it's called at the time, at the time of trial
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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