Market name on creation: Will factory farming ever be banned (or regulated out of practice) by the American government? Updated 6/19/2026: Will factory farming ever be de facto banned and enforced across the contiguous United States? "de facto banned" means 99% eliminated due to any law or regulation "enforced" means the federal government is taking any action to verify compliance with the relevant laws and/or punish noncompliance Update 2026-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market can resolve NO if the federal government ceases to be a functioning state based on the United States Constitution with sovereignty over the majority of its current contiguous territory, as a YES resolution would no longer be possible in that scenario. Update 2026-06-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market title has been updated to require federal government enforcement for a YES resolution. Specifically, a YES now requires that factory farming be de facto banned (99% eliminated) and enforced by the federal government, meaning the federal government must take active steps to verify compliance and/or punish noncompliance.

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 39% chance (3 traders, as of Jun 20, 2026).

Will factory farming ever be de facto banned and enforced across the contiguous United States?

Ṁ100Ṁ76

2050

39%

chance

ALL

Market name on creation: Will factory farming ever be banned (or regulated out of practice) by the American government?

Updated 6/19/2026: Will factory farming ever be de facto banned and enforced across the contiguous United States?

"de facto banned" means 99% eliminated due to any law or regulation

"enforced" means the federal government is taking any action to verify compliance with the relevant laws and/or punish noncompliance

Update 2026-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market can resolve NO if the federal government ceases to be a functioning state based on the United States Constitution with sovereignty over the majority of its current contiguous territory, as a YES resolution would no longer be possible in that scenario.

Update 2026-06-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market title has been updated to require federal government enforcement for a YES resolution. Specifically, a YES now requires that factory farming be de facto banned (99% eliminated) and enforced by the federal government, meaning the federal government must take active steps to verify compliance and/or punish noncompliance.

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Can this question ever resolve NO? "Ever" is a long time, infinite in fact

@TheAllMemeingEye it can because I meant something very specific by "the American government" (if the federal government ceases to be a functioning state with power based on the United States Constitution with sovereignty over the majority of its current contiguous territory, then the question cannot resolve YES and instead will resolve NO)

@TheAllMemeingEye thank you for the clarifying question!! the market is intended to have an infinite horizon and (I personally hope) a pretty high base rate currently, but I also understand that long term markets can be problematic and I should probably just make markets about short term legislation change probablilities

@SpeaksForTrees cool, a slightly more clear title might be "Will factory farming be banned (or regulated out of practice) by the US gov before it ceases to exist?"

@TheAllMemeingEye I appreciate your suggestions, i wanted this from the start to be about government power and if this can ever happen in a real way so i decided to change the title to necessitate federal government enforcement. I hope that conditions having effective government anyways and requires a higher level of certainty and effect for a YES, without changing the principle or underlying probabilities of the question greatly.