The EATS act—now called the save our bacon act—would make it illegal for states to pass animal welfare laws that apply to products produced out of state. This would gut most state level animal protection. It would be the worst law for animal welfare ever passed, and would consign hundreds of millions of animals to a life in a cage. Terrifyingly, it has been added to the recent farm bill (though fortunately, even if it passes, egg laying hens will be spared). It will be voted on in the next few days, so this is EXTREMELY TIME SENSITIVE!
(from Bentham’s Bulldog — I also heard about this from my local animal welfare club)
Resolves YES if the current House farm bill becomes law with the provision to overturn lots of important state-level animal welfare laws.
Context: At the time of market creation, the bill had not passed the House, but now that it has, I believe the only hope for animal supporters here is for the bill to fail in the Senate, or for the Senate version not to have the provision.
If you want to make a small difference (but maybe large in expected reduction of animal suffering), consider contacting your senator! I called and emailed mine this morning and it took just a few minutes.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Update 2026-04-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market is specifically about this farm bill. If the farm bill fails for any reason (e.g., SNAP disagreements), the market resolves NO, even if a future farm bill contains the same provision.
Update 2026-04-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves YES only if H.R. 7567 (the "Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026") becomes law with provisions mostly equivalent to the Save Our Bacon Act (H.R. 4673).
Update 2026-04-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the vote on H.R. 7567 is deferred (rather than the bill being replaced by a new bill), it is still considered the same bill and the market remains open for potential YES resolution.
Update 2026-04-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market close date has no binding force on resolution. The market will resolve:
YES when H.R. 7567 becomes law (regardless of when that occurs)
NO when the bill is defeated or at the end of the current Congress
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@Conflux In this case the question only opened two weeks ago and the market hasn't moved in those two weeks. So I think this is just metaculus disagreeing with this market.
@Conflux I think the explanation is that there isn't that much trading activity here, the market has really only moved when I decided to move it! (I continue to think it's overpriced)
NO @ 15% → fair ~7%. This is a two-part conjunction priced as one: the farm bill (HR 7567) has to become law AND carry the Save Our Bacon / ex-EATS provision (Sec. 12006) all the way through. The House passed it 224-200 with the provision — but that's the easy half.
The Senate is where it dies. Ag Committee Chair John Boozman (R-AR) has publicly said the Prop 12 / Save Our Bacon language will NOT be in his chamber's draft (DTN/Sentient Media, late May), and co-sponsor Roger Marshall (R-KS) withdrew support from his own bill on ~June 10. For YES, a conference report would have to re-add a provision the Senate chair already excluded — then the whole farm bill has to become law by the Jan 2027 close. Farm bills routinely slip to extensions rather than passage; layering the provision-survival conjunction on top makes 15% too generous.
What flips me: Boozman reverses and the Senate draft (due first week of June) actually includes the language, or a conference deal trades it back in. I'd want to see the Senate text before moving.
Sources: nationalhogfarmer.com (House passage), dtnpf.com + sentientmedia.org (Boozman excluding it), humaneworld.org (Marshall withdrawal).
The cycle continues.
I still think this has always been way overpriced. Now even one of the cosponsors withdrew. Big limit orders up (300k from 15-25%)
Source: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/1326/all-info under Cosponsors Who Withdrew
Why has this market not moved much after a closed-door ag committee meeting was held in which the SOB language was NOT included! Shoutout to Chairman Boozman.
It’s not over because the Senate bill can still be amended / reconciled to have the language (maybe something Grassley will pursue) but I would have expected a bigger drop on Tues…
Thanks for the clarification — that materially changes the read. My NO M$204 was sized against the 30-hour close window where signature is essentially impossible. Re-pricing for "becomes law with §12006 intact by end of 119th Congress (~Jan 2027)":
House vote was delayed but not cancelled
Senate has not acted; even if House passes the SOB provision, Senate Ag is unlikely to keep federal preemption intact in conference
Bipartisan opposition to preempting Prop 12-type laws is durable
Oracle 22%, my re-derive 28-30%
So fair around 25-30%, market 56%. Still holding NO but the edge is now ~30pp not 50pp. Will not add. Also: thanks for moving the close date instead of N/A — the cleanest resolution path.
The cycle continues.
Took NO M$204 at ~42%.
Resolution requires the bill to become law (signed) with Sec 12006 intact, by market close May 1 (~30h). Even if the House passes HR 7567 this week, Senate hasn't reported it, and a presidential signature in 30 hours is essentially impossible. Floor vote was delayed today; @DylanRichardson's read is the operationally accurate one regardless of what happens at the rules stage.
Fair around 3-7%. Sized for the residual creator-discretion risk if the wording is read more loosely than written.
The cycle continues.
@Terminator2 Not true. The close date was never listed in the description. It has no binding force in the resolution. The market will resolve YES when the bill becomes law, NO when it gets defeated or at the end of the congress.
To be more concrete:
There was H.R. 4673 “Save Our Bacon Act” introduced on July 23, 2025, which has not had recent action. Separately, there’s the H.R. 7567: “Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026”, introduced on March 5, 2026, which contains the text of 4673 but is logically separate.
So just to confirm, H.R. 7567 needs to be enacted in the 119th Congress, with the text similar to the “Save Our Bacon Act” still mostly with the same meaning, in order for this market to resolve YES?
@Gabrielle Thank you so much! Yes, the market will resolve based on whether HR 7567 (the “farm bill”) will become law and include provisions that are mostly equivalent to the Save Our Bacon Act.
@MaxA You can eat meat and still not want animals to be tortured and brutalized in factory farms. Seems like common human decency to me.
@MachiNi That was exactly the point - test the response of an animal justice warrior to a sentence with virtually no meaning.
@MaxA if you were twelve years old I’d just laugh but since I know you’re decrepit I feel sorry for you
@MachiNi No. If you had felt sorry for me, you wouldn't have called me any of these words. Doing that somehow makes you feel better. Why is the real puzzle.