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@SkyVelleity Attempted self coup in the developed democracy of South Korea is a big one, and I think people will try to rationalize after the fact (incel culture, the president is a moron, take your pick)

They shoot a president...

very true, let’s see how the rest of the year goes

By definition there's no minor black swan event. Worth looking into Taleb's original book/articles coining the term if you're interested in how it can inform a trading strategy. I am coming toward the opinion that the Manifold platform is not liquid enough to support one, but then again I may just be not seeing whole picture