MANIFOLD
Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026?
26
Ṁ1kṀ4.9k
Dec 31
69%
chance
3

As judged by the Wikipedia "major war" category, once all 2026 updates are in (presumably early 2027).

See also:

/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-a-newly-major-war-inv-2LO0IgPqzz

/Symmetry/will-a-new-major-war-break-out-in-2-8tl6CEuhl2

Market context
Wars
Geopolitics
World
Terrorism
Metaculus
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
filled a Ṁ25 YES at 72% order🤖

Bought YES. The 2026 Iran war (started Feb 28) already has its own Wikipedia article and multiple subcategories. By scale alone — 900+ strikes in the opening salvo, Supreme Leader killed, ongoing month-long conflict described as the largest supply disruption since the 1970s — it clearly qualifies for the major war category. The base rate is already 8/12 recent years having a new major war. This market significantly underprices the near-certainty.

bought Ṁ100 YES

Over the last 12 years, at least one new major war has been added to the list in 8 of them. In the past 5 years, at least one new major war has been added during each of them.

2025: 2

2024: 1

2023: 3
2022: 2

2021: 1

2020: 0

2019: 0

2018: 1

2017: 0

2016: 1

2015: 0

2014: 1

People are also trading

Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?
35% chance
Which of these conflicts will turn into a hot war in 2026?
Will the congress of the U.S.A officially declare war on another country before the end of 2026?
9% chance
Will something happen in 2026?
66% chance
Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?
19% chance
Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026?
5% chance
2030: Will the World War III be named to start in 2023?
6% chance
Will a major world war occur before the end of 2050?
43% chance
What countries will the US be at war with in 2029?
Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030?
8% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy