MANIFOLD

Will Manifold Markets exist in 2025?

Ṁ1kṀ11k

resolved Jan 4

Resolved

YES

ALL

The website is up is as functional as it is now, or more

Market context

Manifold User Retention

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#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ70
2		Ṁ33
3		Ṁ19
4		Ṁ18
5		Ṁ14

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@Siteowe resolves YES

bought Ṁ100 YES

this market cannot resolve no.

I wish I had 100k Mana to bet on this.

predictedYES

@LightLawliet You will also like this one: https://manifold.markets/prerat/what-will-be-23-of-the-average-pred?r=TGVvbkJvaG5tYW5u

What will be 2/3 of the average predicted response to this question?

12 expected. I will resolve this market to 2/3 of the value predicted by this market when it closes.

There is absolutely no reason to bet against this, since the question cannot be resolved as "NO" per definition. So lets bring this up to 100%.

@LeonBohnmann The question can resolve "NO" per description, if Manifold loses part of its functionality.

predictedYES

@AnT You are right, that wording is ambiguous, even though I interpret "functional" as a binary thing in this case because of the title.

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Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?

86% chance

Will Manifold Markets still be around by 2030?

95% chance

Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)

72% chance

Will Manifold Markets still be active in 2030?

92% chance

Will Manifold Markets still be popular at the end of 2026?

62% chance

Will Manifold Markets have a manifold market?

26% chance

Will Manifold Markets be insolvent before 2030?

9% chance

Will any Manifold markets created in 2023 be resolved in 2050 by the original author?

81% chance

Will Manifold be acquired by PolyMarket by end of 2030?

13% chance

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