Will the UCSF AER002 phase 2 pilot trial show statistically significantly positive results?
Will the UCSF AER002 phase 2 pilot trial show statistically significantly positive results?
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70Ṁ15Dec 31
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Trial registration: https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05877508
This will resolve based on the primary outcome measure only:
Change in Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS)-29 Score from Baseline.
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There are multiple different outcome measures. A very likely result is that some show improvement while others don’t. How does the question account for this?
Good point. This will resolve based on the primary outcome measure only:
Change in Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS)-29 Score from Baseline.
bought Ṁ5 NO9mo
So a statistically significant increase compared to placebo group in the Primary outcome measure. Hmmmm, I’m betting No.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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