It seems really unlikely that a clinical trial would be completed by this markets end date (2026). So I’m assuming that you’ll push the end date back. But if you’re going to push the market end date back, what is the real end date? If the market will stay open until a successful trial then this can’t resolve NO.

@Jwags Do you have a suggestion for an appropriate end date? Perhaps ends by 2027 if clinical trials are not actively moving forward.

@Valjean Yeah, it'd a good market if you clarified it resolves on some day 2027-2030. Could even make multiple markets for different end dates, or one of those fancy multi-choice markets. I don't think it's a good idea to count trials that are "actively moving forward". Lots of trials go silent and never report in, so you'd have to judge whether those are "ongoing" without a lot of information. I think that the US FDA now requires trials to pre-register nowadays, so you might check whether those pre-registrations define end dates or discrete final reporting events that you can conclusively say did or didn't happen.