Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the number of homicides recorded in Mexico on January 28, 2026 exceeds 50. The resolution will be based on preliminary homicide data reported by Mexico's Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection (SSPC) and compiled from state prosecutors' offices and public security agencies. Data can be verified at elcri.men, which tracks daily homicide reports from the SSPC.

Background

Mexico recorded an average of 64 homicides per day in 2025, a decline of 30.2% compared to 2024. More recently, December 2025 saw an average of 52.4 homicides per day. The daily average in December was significantly lower than the 86.9 homicides per day recorded in September 2024, reflecting the impact of President Claudia Sheinbaum's security strategy implemented after taking office in October 2024.

Considerations

Daily homicide data come from preliminary reports prepared by state prosecutors' offices and public security agencies, and may differ from official records later consolidated by institutions such as INEGI or SESNSP, which refine and validate data based on judicial and prosecutorial case files. Additionally, some killings may be undercounted because some violent deaths are recorded under other categories, such as accidents, instead of homicides.