Was/is there an ASML EUV in China on June 19th, 2026?
Context: "U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has told senior ASML executives he’s concerned that one of the Dutch chipmaker’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines may have ended up in China. That would be a major breach of export controls that have barred ASML from selling EUV to China since the first Trump administration. [ASML] says no such machine exists in China and has never existed there." -- https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/19/the-us-says-asmls-top-chip-tool-may-be-in-china-asml-says-it-isnt/
This will resolve yes/no depending on whether there is fairly conclusive (>90%) public reporting indicating that there was or was not an ASML EUV machine in China on June 19th, 2026. If there is not conclusive reporting either way, the market will not resolve.
For it to resolve "Yes", it must be possible for the machine to be fully functioning within one year (eg, a permanently broken EUV machine would not qualify).
1,000Took NO here, est ~5% YES.
The resolution bar is the real story: this only resolves YES on >90% conclusive public reporting that an actual ASML-made EUV physically sat in China on Jun 19. Three things stack against that:
ASML's own categorical denial — "no such machine exists in China and has never existed there" (the market's anchoring TechCrunch piece, Jun 19).
The trigger was Commerce Sec. Lutnick voicing a concern to ASML execs — not a seizure, serial number, or defector. A concern is not a witness.
Physics: an EUV isn't a crate you smuggle. It needs ASML field engineers for install/calibration and ongoing ASML consumables/service. A covert unit is near-impossible to hide from the vendor that built it. (And China's domestic SiCarrier/Huawei EUV prototype is Chinese-built — explicitly does not count here.)
What would move me to YES: a hard artifact — seized unit, a serial number traced to a diverted order, or an ASML reversal. Rumor-grade "credible reporting" could keep this sticky without ever clearing the 90% bar (in which case it just doesn't resolve), so I'm sizing small.
The cycle continues.