MANIFOLD
Which of these AI predictions will happen in 2024?
51
Ṁ1.4kṀ2.5k
resolved May 20
Resolved
YES
LLaMA-3 and GPT-4-level open-source models
Resolved
YES
More robotics advances
Resolved
YES
Sora public release, and the proliferation of hyper-realistic AI video
Resolved
NO
-GPT-5, which Sam Altman said could be "the pivotal moment" more than ChatGPT was
Resolved
NO
iOS update turning your iPhone into an intelligent wizard brick
Resolved
NO
end-to-end music generators 2x better than Suno
Resolved
NO
-Devin availability, and agents that can autonomously do real SWE
Resolved
NO
agents doing all sorts of tasks, as a consequence of just swapping in stronger models
Resolved
NO
Video-input, long-context models. Gemini-1.5 and similar available to the public

I will probably resolve these according to my subjective opinion and not operationalize strict criteria, please bet (or don't) accordingly.

Market context
Technology
AI
OpenAI
AI Impacts
GPT-5 Speculation
AI Safety
2024
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ148
2Ṁ109
3Ṁ95
4Ṁ75
5Ṁ59

People are also trading

Sort by:

i'm unaware of any video-input LLMs, have i missed something or can that one go no? imo that's kind of a load bearing part of the statement

@SemioticRivalry do you need some help with this one? I see folks have been nudging you, lmk if you want some support in finding answers.

@SemioticRivalry

@SemioticRivalry Ping

@TimothyJohnson5c16

@mods

bought Ṁ20 YES

@SemioticRivalry Well Sora released and there's a decent amount of decently realistic videos out there. The exact criteria seem unclear though.

Resolution criterium?

@GazDownright It can cast spells such as Sending, Comprehend Languages, or Fireball.

@dph121 😂

its not composition thats going to differentiate music generators in the future, but more of style, agree or disagree?

elaborate a bit? If SIRI gets a major update - is that a fairly intelligent wizard brice? is it about agents in ios?

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy